Next president may pick Supreme Court justice

Scores of judicial appointments to make

Monday, September 27, 2004 Posted: 6:37 PM EDT (2237 GMT)

	Picking a Supreme Court justice would be a big prize for the next president.

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Few things a president does have the lasting impact of picking a member of the Supreme Court, an assignment that will probably come to either President Bush or Democrat John Kerry in the next four years.

The next president will also choose scores, maybe even hundreds of federal appeals court and trial judges, who will serve for decades to come.

If Bush wins a second term, he could be on his way to naming more federal trial and appeals judges than either of the last two-term presidents. Bill Clinton appointed 367 judges, including two Supreme Court justices, and Ronald Reagan chose 357 judges, including three Supreme Court justices. Reagan also elevated William H. Rehnquist from associate to chief justice.

With 201 judges appointed so far, Bush is already ahead of the 187 his father chose during his one-term presidency -- though many of the current president's nominees are having to weather a rocky confirmation process in the Senate.

Picking a Supreme Court justice would be a bigger prize.

Justices, like other federal judges, can remain on the job decades after the president who chose them. They serve for life or until they choose to retire.

Rehnquist is the longest-serving member of the high court, chosen 32 years ago by Richard Nixon. John Paul Stevens is still there 29 years after he was Gerald Ford's lone Supreme Court pick.

The nine-member high court can be divided into three camps -- conservative, middle-of-the-road and moderately liberal -- and frequently lines up 5-4 on the most difficult cases. Depending on who is counting, the court is one vote or two away from overturning Roe v. Wade, the three-decade-old ruling that affirmed the legality of abortion.

In an AP-Ipsos poll taken last week, 56 percent of those surveyed said they wanted the president to nominate a Supreme Court justice with conservative political views if a vacancy occurs; 37 percent said they preferred a justice with liberal views.

Courts can have the crucial last word on important and contentious issues, as recent rulings on affirmative action and presidential war powers attest. But chances are most voters won't hear specifics about the kind of judges either candidate favors.

"As a campaign issue I think it's been almost invisible," said Supreme Court historian David Garrow.

That's a departure from the 2000 campaign, when both Bush and Democratic nominee Al Gore pointed to particular Supreme Court justices they admired, and partisans on both sides spoke with certainty about an expected Supreme Court retirement.

Four years later, not one Supreme Court justice has left the bench. That makes it even more likely there will be an opening sometime soon.

Next month the current court begins its 10th term without a vacancy. Only one justice, Clarence Thomas, is younger than 65. Speculation about retirement has focused on Rehnquist, who will turn 80 in October, Stevens, who is 84, and Sandra Day O'Connor, 74.

"Not even Supreme Court justices can overrule actuarial tables," said Pepperdine University constitutional law professor Douglas Kmiec.

Although he noted that speculation about retirements is often wrong, Kmiec predicted two or three vacancies before the 2008 presidential election.

"It's not that people were crying wolf last time, it's just that it didn't play out the way we expected," said Duke University constitutional law professor Erwin Chemerinsky.

The candidates may be wary of predicting any vacancies this time, and other more immediate issues are crowding out discussion of the court and judges, scholars said.

Bush did mention the issue in his acceptance speech at the Republican convention, criticizing judges he contends have gone too far in rulings declaring gay marriage legal and a ban on certain abortions unconstitutional.

"I support the protection of marriage against activist judges," the president said, "and I will continue to appoint federal judges who know the difference between personal opinion and the strict interpretation of the law."

For his part, Kerry promises on his campaign Web site that as president he would try to "reverse damage done to civil rights laws by right-wing judges" and would "only appoint judges with a record of enforcing the nation's civil rights and anti-discrimination laws."